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跨越發(fā)展的陷阱:推進經(jīng)濟中高速增長的突破性改革方案

跨越發(fā)展的陷阱:推進經(jīng)濟中高速增長的突破性改革方案

作者：周天勇
出版社：中國財富出版社出版時間：2017-03-01
開本： 24cm 頁數(shù)： 368
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跨越發(fā)展的陷阱:推進經(jīng)濟中高速增長的突破性改革方案 版權(quán)信息

跨越發(fā)展的陷阱:推進經(jīng)濟中高速增長的突破性改革方案 本書特色

目前，中國經(jīng)濟增速明顯放緩，下行危機不斷增大。如何跨越這發(fā)展的陷阱？ “新常態(tài)”下，如何通過深化改革，推進經(jīng)濟實現(xiàn)中高速增長？本書剖析了中國經(jīng)濟增長速度下行的三方面內(nèi)在原因，解讀了經(jīng)濟下行的各種風險，分析了扭轉(zhuǎn)風險所面對的優(yōu)勢，并結(jié)合對中國經(jīng)濟增長的歷史回顧，對中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展大勢做出預(yù)判，提出中國實體經(jīng)濟降成本政策及其配套改革方案，闡述了實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟增長的突破性和基礎(chǔ)動能性體制改革、改革體制與盤活存量、開放和拓展增長領(lǐng)域的體制改革、對外經(jīng)濟開放改革等方案性措施，是各級經(jīng)濟政策的設(shè)計者、改革方案的制定者以及所有關(guān)注中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展讀者的必讀力作。

跨越發(fā)展的陷阱:推進經(jīng)濟中高速增長的突破性改革方案 內(nèi)容簡介

本書剖析了中國經(jīng)濟增長速度下行的三方面內(nèi)在原因, 解讀了經(jīng)濟下行的各種風險, 分析了扭轉(zhuǎn)風險所面對的優(yōu)勢, 并結(jié)合對中國經(jīng)濟增長的歷史回顧, 對中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展大勢做出預(yù)判, 提出中國實體經(jīng)濟降成本政策及其配套改革方案, 闡述了實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟增長的突破性和基礎(chǔ)動能性體制改革、

跨越發(fā)展的陷阱:推進經(jīng)濟中高速增長的突破性改革方案 目錄

1扭轉(zhuǎn)經(jīng)濟增速下行的框架性概述/ 00
11實體經(jīng)濟的休養(yǎng)生息/ 00
111降低企業(yè)成本必須減稅降費/ 00
112推進降低成本的配套性體制改革/ 00
12產(chǎn)權(quán)改革為重，啟動J型增長/ 00
13三方面基礎(chǔ)性的體制改革/ 00
14盤活存量要素和資源的體制改革/ 0
141盤活城鄉(xiāng)間要素和資源存量的體制改革/ 0
142盤活國有經(jīng)濟要素和資源存量的體制改革/ 0
143盤活創(chuàng)新要素和資源存量的體制改革/ 0
15拓寬增長來源領(lǐng)域的開放性體制改革/ 0
151一些被管制領(lǐng)域的體制改革/ 0
152拓展新增長領(lǐng)域的體制改革/ 0
153放開社會事業(yè)領(lǐng)域的體制改革/ 0
16圍繞經(jīng)濟中高速增長布局對外經(jīng)濟開放/ 0
161減少對外漏損與出口替代戰(zhàn)略/ 0
162“一帶一路”思路與戰(zhàn)略的補充與完善/ 02經(jīng)濟增長速度下行的三方面內(nèi)在原因/ 0
21人口收縮老化與經(jīng)濟格局變化/ 0
211“人口坑”對經(jīng)濟增長的20年影響定律/ 0
212增長乏力：不能市民化的城市化/ 0
213經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的格局發(fā)生了重大的轉(zhuǎn)折/ 0
22企業(yè)高成本重創(chuàng)實體經(jīng)濟/ 0
221政府銀行國企GDP分配比例的上升/ 0
222城鄉(xiāng)居民和民營實體經(jīng)濟所分配的GDP/ 0
223居民消費能力趨弱/ 0
224擠壓利潤和高債務(wù)迫使投資增速下行/ 0
225經(jīng)濟增長下行的GDP擠壓力流程/ 0
23國民經(jīng)濟流量的對外漏損/ 0
231服務(wù)貿(mào)易逆差對經(jīng)濟增長的影響/ 0
232企業(yè)家資金轉(zhuǎn)移的增長推動力漏損/ 0

3經(jīng)濟增速下行風險及其扭轉(zhuǎn)的優(yōu)勢/ 0
31未來中國發(fā)展面臨的一些風險/ 0
311經(jīng)濟增速長期下行和低位徘徊/ 0
312改革提振速度慢于經(jīng)濟增速下行的惡化/ 0
313金融和經(jīng)濟危機可能由高杠桿率引發(fā)/ 0
314稅費供養(yǎng)失衡與溫水煮青蛙的可能性/ 0
315養(yǎng)老金缺口與民粹化導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟社會“希臘化”/ 0
32中美印之間未來基于人口的競爭/ 0
321中美印人口結(jié)構(gòu)對比/ 0
322中美印未來人口數(shù)量和經(jīng)濟走勢預(yù)測/ 0
323中美印未來GDP總量和均值預(yù)測/ 0
33中國經(jīng)濟增速的優(yōu)勢與潛力/
331睿智勤勞儲蓄創(chuàng)業(yè)的中華民族/
332經(jīng)濟增速有堅實的基礎(chǔ)/
333大國規(guī)模經(jīng)濟優(yōu)勢/

4經(jīng)濟增長的歷史回顧與大勢預(yù)判/
41改革開放以來三次S型經(jīng)濟增長/
411改革開啟經(jīng)濟起飛的首個S型增長階段/
412改革開放深化推進第二個S型增長階段/
413加入WTO促改革形成第三輪S型增長/
42溫故和判斷及把握關(guān)系/
421三次經(jīng)濟增速上行和下行的經(jīng)驗和啟示/
422五種疊加壓力可能造成經(jīng)濟增速長期下行的格局/
423診斷和治療經(jīng)濟增速下行的大體思路/

5實體經(jīng)濟降成本政策及其配套改革/
51實施綜合降低成本的經(jīng)濟政策/
511擴張性政策對人口原因性衰退調(diào)節(jié)的失效/
512經(jīng)濟高成本需要供給學派政策調(diào)降/
513供給經(jīng)濟政策需要凱恩斯工具相配合/
52降成本必須推進的體制改革/
521金融體制方面的改革/
522運輸、能源和土地降成本的體制改革/
523降低企業(yè)成本與稅費供養(yǎng)體制改革/

6經(jīng)濟增長：突破性和基礎(chǔ)動能性體制改革/
61突破性改革啟動新一輪J型增長/
62長遠期經(jīng)濟增長基礎(chǔ)動能性體制改革/
621創(chuàng)業(yè)就業(yè)體制改革/
622轉(zhuǎn)變觀念和推進生育體制改革/

7經(jīng)濟增長：改革體制與盤活存量/
71城鄉(xiāng)間要素和資源流動的體制改革/
711加速市民化的體制改革/
712農(nóng)村土地使用財產(chǎn)權(quán)制度的改革/
72國企改革與促進經(jīng)濟增長/
721低效率國有經(jīng)濟與改革的緊迫性/
722體制成本和集中風險及國有領(lǐng)域選擇/
723切實推進國有企業(yè)的體制改革/
73盤活創(chuàng)新領(lǐng)域要素和資源的改革/
731科技創(chuàng)新要素和資源利用的問題/
732盤活科技創(chuàng)新存量的體制改革/

8開放和拓展經(jīng)濟增長領(lǐng)域的體制改革/
81服務(wù)業(yè)體制改革及領(lǐng)域的開放/
811服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展存在的體制問題/
812服務(wù)業(yè)體制的分類改革和開放/
82社會事業(yè)領(lǐng)域向民間放開/
821目前發(fā)展民間社會組織的問題/
822拓寬社會事業(yè)領(lǐng)域的幾個重大關(guān)系/
823發(fā)展和壯大民間社會組織層次/
83拓展增長的空間資源環(huán)境等新領(lǐng)域/
831通用航空領(lǐng)域體制改革和開放/
832土地淡水造林生態(tài)領(lǐng)域的開放/
833將環(huán)境保護和治理轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)閯?chuàng)造GDP的產(chǎn)業(yè)/
834推進PPP體制改革吸引民間投資/

9促進經(jīng)濟增長與對外經(jīng)濟開放/
91國內(nèi)外形勢變化與對外開放的轉(zhuǎn)折/
911基于國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟形勢變化的對外開放調(diào)整/
912國際形勢變化與中國開放戰(zhàn)略的調(diào)整/
92中國經(jīng)濟開放的優(yōu)勢和面臨的挑戰(zhàn)/
921對外經(jīng)濟開放的優(yōu)勢不容置疑/
922中國“走出去”面臨的風險和自身的不足/
923特朗普時代：中國的不確定性、風險和機遇/
93未來對外開放戰(zhàn)略的思路和組合/
931構(gòu)建對外經(jīng)濟開放宏微觀調(diào)節(jié)機制/
932產(chǎn)業(yè)升級與出口替代/
933投資、資金和進出口流入與流出平衡/
934產(chǎn)能轉(zhuǎn)移、平衡推進和國內(nèi)關(guān)聯(lián)/
935“走出去”的方式和體制的轉(zhuǎn)型/
936特朗普時代：中國堅持經(jīng)濟全球化/
937國內(nèi)能源自主與淡水平衡/

后記/
Chapter 1The Framework Overview of Reversing The Slowdown of Economic Growth/ 00
11Recuperation of the Real Economy/ 00
111Tax-cut and Fee Reduction Is Necessary for Lowering Enterprises Cost/ 00
112The Supporting Ttructural Rreform of Promoting Cost Reduction/ 00
12Property Reform for Rebooting the J-curve Growth/ 00
13Basic Institutional Reform in Three Dimensions/ 00
14Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks of Elements and Resources/ 0
141Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks between Urban and Rural Regions/ 0
142Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks of State-owned Economic Elements and Resources/ 0
143Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks of Innovational Elements and Resources/ 0
15Field Opening Institutional Reforms for Broadening the Sources of Growth/ 0
151Institutional Reforms for Opening up A Few Restrained Fields/ 0
152Institutional Reforms for Broadening New Ares for Growth/ 0
153Institutional Reforms for Deregulation in Fields of Social Undertaking/ 0
16Layout of Opening Strategy surrounding Medium High-Speed Growth/ 0
161Strategy for Reducing Leakage and Export Substitution/ 0
162Thoughts, Complements and Perfections about “the Belt and Road Initiatives”/ 0

Contents
Chapter 2Three Underlying Reasons of the Slowing Down Economic Growth Rate/ 0
21Population Aging and Changes of Economic Pattern/ 0
211Theorem of 20-year Delay Effect of Population Pit over Economic Growth / 0
212Sluggish Growth: Urbanization Excluding Citizenization/ 0
213Major Transition in Layout of Economic Development/ 0
22High Costs on Enterprises Hit the Real Economy/ 0
221Increasing Share of GDP by Government, Banks and State-owned Enterprises/ 0
222Share of GDP Goes to Urban & Rural Citizens and Private Real Economy/ 0
223Weakening Household Consumption Capacity/ 0
224Shrinking Profit and High Debt that Causing Investment Slowdown/ 0
225GDPs Crowding out Process of Economic Downturn/ 0
23Outward Leakage of National Economic Flow/ 0
231Service Trade Deficit Impacting Economic Growth/ 0
232Growing Capital Outward Transfer by Entrepreneurs Causing Economic Impetus Leakage/ 0

Chapter 3Risks of Economic Slowdown and the Advantages for Reversion/ 0
31Risks for China's Development in Future/ 0
311Long-term Economic Downturn and Fluctuation at Low Level/ 0
312Inspiration from Reform Slower than Economic Deterioration/ 0
313Financial and Economic Crises Caused by High Leverage/ 0
314Imbalance Support of Taxes & Fees and Possibilities of “Boiling Frog” Effect/ 0
315Pension Deficit and Populist May Lead to Situation Similar as “Greeces Disease”/ 0
32Competitions Samong China, the United States and India Based on Population in Future/ 0
321Population Structure Comparison among China, America and India/ 0
322Population Predictions and Economic Trends of China, America and India/ 0
323Total GDP and Average Amount Prediction of China, America and India/ 0
33Advantages and Potential of China's Economic Growth/ 0
331Wise, Hardworking Chinese Nation with Savings and Entrepreneurship/ 0
332Solid Foundation of Economic Growth/
333Advantage of Scale Economy for A Great Power/

Chapter 4Review of Economic Growth and Prediction on Its Trends/
41Three Periods of Scurve Economic Growth since the Reform and Openingup in China/
411The First Stage of Scurve Growth Initiated by Reform/
412Deepening Reform and Openingup Which Advanced the Second Scurve Growth/
413Entry into WTO Promoteed Both Reform and the Third Stage of S-curve Growth/
42Reviews, Appraises and Relationship Analyses/
421Experience and Enlightenment of Three Cycles of Economic Upward and Downward/
422Superposition of Five Trends Which May Cause Long-term Economic Downturn/
423General Ideas of Diagnoses and Treatment for Economic Downturn/


Chapter 5Cost Reduction Policies and Supporting Reforms for Real Economy/
51To Implement Comprehensive Economic Policies for Cost Reduction/
511Ineffective Expansive Policies on Causal Decline of Population/
512High Cost Needs to Be Lowered from Supply-side/
513Supply-side Policies Embracing Keynesian Policies/
52Several Indispensable Structural Reforms for Promoting Cost Reduction/
521Reforms on Financial System/
522Structural Reforms on Lowering Costs in Transportation, Energy and Land/
523Structural Reforms on Lowering Costs for Enterprises and Taxes & Fees/ Chapter 6Economic Growth: Structural Reforms as Breakthroughs and Basic Momentums/
61Initiating New Round of “J” Shaped Growth by Achieving Breakthroughs in Reform/
62Establishing Basic Momentums for Long-term Growth/
621Structural Reform on Entrepreneurship and Employment System/
622Idea Changing and Advancing Structural Reform on Birth Control/

Chapter 7Economic Growth: Structural Reforms and Liquidizing Remnant Assets/
71Structural Reforms for Mobility of Factors and Resources Between Urban and Rural Areas/
711Speed-up Structural Reforms on Citizenizaition/
712Reforms on Land Property of Usage in Rural Areas/
72Reforming State-owned Enterprises and Promoting Economic Growth/
721Low Efficiency of State-owned Enterprises and Urgency for Reforms/
722Institutional Costs, Risks of Concentration and Choices of State-owned Domains/
723Firmly Promote Structural Reforms on State-owned Enterprises/
73Reforms for Liquidizing Factors and Resources in Innovative Domains/
731Problems of Liquidizing Technology Innovation Stock and Resources/
732Structural Reforms on Liquidizing Technology Innovation Stock/

Chapter 8Reforms for Opening up and Expanding the Fields of Growth/
81Reforms and Opening of Service Industry/
811Institutional Problems about Service Industry Development/
812Reforms on Service Industry System and Its Opening/
82Opening Social Undertaking Toward Private Capital/
821Problems of Social Associations Development at the Moment/
822Broadening the Major Relations of Social Undertaking/
823Developing and Expanding Hierarchies of Non-Official Social Undertaking/
83Expanding New Fields: Space, Resources and Environment/
831Structural Reform and Opening of General Aviation/
832Opening the Fields of Environment Such as Fresh Water and Afforestation/
833Turn Environment Protection into Industries Producing GDP/
834To Attract Private Investment by Advancing Structural Reforms of PPP /

Chapter 9Promoting Economic Growth and Openingup/
91Changes in the Domestic and International Situation and Transition of Chinas Openingup/
911Adjustment of Opening-up Based on Domestic Economic Situations/
912International Situation and Adjustment of Chinas Opening Strategy/
92Advantages and Challenges for Chinas Economic Opening/
921Unquestionable Advantages of Opening-up/
922Risks and Shortcomings of Chinas “Going Abroad”/
923Trumps Age: Uncertainties, Risks and Opportunities/
93Thoughts and Combinations of Opening-up Strategy in Future/
931Constructing Macro and Micro Regulatory Mechanism of Opening-up/
932Industrial Upgrading and Export Substitution/
933Investment, Capital, Balancing the Inflows & Outflows and Stabilizing Economic Growth/
934Industrial Capacity Shifting, Balanced Progress and Domestic Interrelations/
935Patterns of “Going Abroad” and Institutional Transition/
936Trumps Age:Chinas Insisting on Economic Globalization/
937Domestic Energy Independence and Balanced Fresh Water/

Postscript/
展開全部

跨越發(fā)展的陷阱:推進經(jīng)濟中高速增長的突破性改革方案 作者簡介

周天勇，經(jīng)濟學博士，教授，中共中央黨校國際戰(zhàn)略研究所副所長，中共中央黨校校委研究室副主任，北京科技大學博士生導(dǎo)師。 社會兼職有：中國城市發(fā)展研究會副理事長兼城市研究所所長，國家行政學院、北京科技大學、東北財政大學、中國社會科學院研究生院等教授，國家發(fā)改委價格咨詢專家。研究領(lǐng)域為社會主義經(jīng)濟理論、宏觀經(jīng)濟、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和增長、勞動經(jīng)濟、中小企業(yè)、金融風險、城市化、國企改革、農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟等。在上海三聯(lián)出版社、經(jīng)濟科學出版社和中共中央黨校出版社出版有《勞動與經(jīng)濟增長》、《效率與供給經(jīng)濟學》、《金融風險與資本社會化》、《中國經(jīng)濟命運與前景的深層次思考》、《新發(fā)展經(jīng)濟學》、《中國政治體制改革》、《國有企業(yè)改革攻堅》、《現(xiàn)代國有資產(chǎn)管理體系模式》、《走出決策的經(jīng)濟誤區(qū)》、《走出發(fā)展的體制障礙》、《中國：經(jīng)濟運行與結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)換》和研究生用《高級發(fā)展經(jīng)濟學》等專著和教材。近年來就國家整體負債、公平與效率、政府各部門收費、財政體制、官民供養(yǎng)比、水電開發(fā)、中國增長的危機等方面發(fā)表的文章，引起了各方面的高度關(guān)注。

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