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繁榮的輪回:人口變動與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的一個邏輯解釋

繁榮的輪回:人口變動與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的一個邏輯解釋

出版社：中國財富出版社出版時間：2017-03-01
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繁榮的輪回:人口變動與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的一個邏輯解釋 版權(quán)信息

繁榮的輪回:人口變動與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的一個邏輯解釋 本書特色

自2008年以來，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)中的“人口紅利”消耗殆盡，每年8%以上增速的“中國奇跡”風(fēng)光不再。未來15-20年，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)能否保持中高速增長？通過調(diào)整人口政策，能給經(jīng)濟(jì)增長帶來哪些新動力？本書以獨特的視角，從研究中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的“人口因素”入手，借鑒世界各國經(jīng)驗教訓(xùn)，揭示了中國經(jīng)濟(jì)下行的深層次原因，提出了中國人口政策方面的“生育管制”和“流動管制”帶來的各種不利經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的后果，為各級政府制定促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策與改革方案，提供了一條嶄新的思路。

繁榮的輪回:人口變動與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的一個邏輯解釋 內(nèi)容簡介

本書以獨特的視角, 從研究中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的“人口因素”入手, 借鑒世界各國經(jīng)驗教訓(xùn), 揭示了中國經(jīng)濟(jì)下行的深層次原因, 提出了中國人口政策方面的“生育管制”和“流動管制”帶來的各種不利經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的后果, 為各級政府制定促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策與改革方案, 提供了一條嶄新的

繁榮的輪回:人口變動與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的一個邏輯解釋 目錄

第1部分中國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)界的未解之謎
1問題的起因/00
11中國奇跡：經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長30年/00
111經(jīng)濟(jì)實力快速增長/00
112從農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會向現(xiàn)代工業(yè)社會的轉(zhuǎn)型/00
113對外貿(mào)易的“引進(jìn)來”和“走出去”/00
114人民生活從溫飽到小康/0
12中國經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長的成因/0
121高生育率積蓄了大規(guī)模的剩余勞動力/0
122剩余勞動力優(yōu)勢成功嵌入全球產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈/0
123經(jīng)濟(jì)主力人口的創(chuàng)業(yè)創(chuàng)新動力/0
132008年經(jīng)濟(jì)增速開始下行/0
131工業(yè)生產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)入了全面過剩/0
132消費、投資增速下行和突然放緩/0
133傳統(tǒng)的出口優(yōu)勢逐步趨弱并已消失殆盡/0 2經(jīng)濟(jì)下行的“兩家爭鳴”與質(zhì)疑/0
21經(jīng)濟(jì)本不應(yīng)進(jìn)入中速增長階段/0
211“中速增長常態(tài)論”的邏輯推理和政策主張/0
212對“中速增長常態(tài)論”的商榷/0
22經(jīng)濟(jì)下行不是外因所致/0
221“增速下行外因論”的邏輯推理和政策主張/0
222對“增速下行外因論”的商榷/0

目錄第2部分學(xué)術(shù)爭論與歷史演變
3人口與發(fā)展：理論述評與事實/0
31人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系理論的回顧與評述/0
311適度人口論與人口控制主張/0
312《增長的極限》與人口資源悲觀論/0
313市場機(jī)制調(diào)控家庭生育決策的基本過程/0
314人口流動與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系的研究述評/0
32人口增長與工業(yè)化發(fā)展/0
321人口增長是工業(yè)化的必要條件/0
322人口增長方式轉(zhuǎn)型也是工業(yè)化的產(chǎn)物/0
33人口流動、城市化及工業(yè)化發(fā)展/0
331人口流動加速城市化的進(jìn)程/0
332城市化與工業(yè)化發(fā)展的互動/0
34人口、工業(yè)化與生態(tài)環(huán)境的動態(tài)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展/0
341人口增長與資源的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展/0
342人口、工業(yè)化與環(huán)境的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展/0
343人口、工業(yè)化與生態(tài)環(huán)境的動態(tài)發(fā)展/0 4生育權(quán)與遷移權(quán)/0
41生育權(quán)與遷移權(quán)的界定/0
411生育權(quán)在個人和國家間的歸屬之爭/0
412遷移權(quán)在個人與國家間不同的安排/0
42 生育權(quán)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)分析/
421生育權(quán)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)解釋/
422生育權(quán)行使的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)探討/
43 遷移權(quán)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)分析/
431遷移權(quán)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)解釋/
432遷移權(quán)行使的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)探討/ 5 世界經(jīng)驗：基于不同生育權(quán)和遷移權(quán)的配置/
51 基于不同生育權(quán)配置的國際經(jīng)驗/
511美國不干預(yù)的生育及經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展/
512日本指導(dǎo)性計劃生育與經(jīng)濟(jì)的先富后低/
513韓國指導(dǎo)性計劃生育歷程/
514中國臺灣地區(qū)的指導(dǎo)性計劃生育/
515計劃生育政策在印度的流產(chǎn) /
516不同生育權(quán)配置的國際經(jīng)驗總結(jié)/
52 基于不同遷移權(quán)配置的國際經(jīng)驗/
521美國的人口遷移自由/
522日本的人口遷移和住民登記/
523法國的遷移自由和流動人口管理/
524俄羅斯人口遷移及其低流動性/
525印度的人口遷移與貧民窟的形成/
526不同遷移權(quán)配置的國際經(jīng)驗總結(jié)/

第3部分中國人口生育管制的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果
6 “人口坑”與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的陷阱/
61 “人口坑”深淺與經(jīng)濟(jì)高增長時間的長短/
611工業(yè)化階段的“人口坑”與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度/
612中國“人口坑”與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度放慢/
62 人口增長變動對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度的影響/
621即期影響：人口增長對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響/
622長期影響：人口變動的20年延期影響定理/ 7 人口結(jié)構(gòu)失衡和老齡化的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果/
71 人口結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)排浪式變動及增長波動/
711人口變動與消費、投資和出口變動的數(shù)理關(guān)系/
712人口變動引致國民經(jīng)濟(jì)排浪式衰退/
72 未來經(jīng)濟(jì)長期承受的下行和老齡化壓力/
721國民經(jīng)濟(jì)未來長期面臨的下行壓力/
722未來老齡化加劇的諸多難題/
第4部分中國人口流動管制的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果
8 人口進(jìn)入城市和退出農(nóng)村的障礙和問題/
81 流動人口市民化的進(jìn)入障礙/
811中國戶籍管理制度變遷與人口流動/
812社會保障與公共服務(wù)的不公平/
82進(jìn)城農(nóng)民工人口的農(nóng)村財產(chǎn)退出障礙/
821農(nóng)民理性經(jīng)濟(jì)人與退出資產(chǎn)障礙和機(jī)會成本/
822出租退出困境與其他退出方式比較/
823農(nóng)地制度復(fù)雜性與建設(shè)征用為國有之弊/ 9 城市化流程的扭曲和消費塌陷/
91 “青出老回”與漂泊于城市/
911人口城鄉(xiāng)鐘擺式和不同地頻繁流動/
912人口從農(nóng)村到城市的“青出老回”/
913不返鄉(xiāng)的農(nóng)民工人口在城市中漂泊/
914大多數(shù)國家能夠市民化的城市化/
92城市消費抑制和農(nóng)村消費塌陷/
921流動人口干預(yù)制度下的城市消費抑制/
922“青出老回”流程與農(nóng)村消費塌陷/


結(jié)束語/
參考文獻(xiàn)/





0000












PART ONEThe Unsolved Mystery in China’s Economic Community
1Origin of the Problem/ 00
11Chinese Miracle: The 30 Years of High Economic Growth Rate/ 00
111Rapid Growth of Economic Strength/ 00
112Transition from Agricultural Economy to Modern Industrial Economy/ 00
113“Bringing In” and “Going Out” of International Trade/ 00
114From Subsistence to Moderate Prosperity/ 0
12The Reasons of China’s High Economic Growth/ 0
121High Fertility Rate Saving Huge Surplus Labor/ 0
122Successfully Integrating Surplus Labor Advantage into Global Industrial Chain/ 0
123Entrepreneurship and Innovation by Population as Major Economic Force/ 0
13The Slowdown of Economic Growth Since 2008/ 0
131Industrial Product Turning into Overall Surplus/ 0
132Downturn and an Abrupt Slowdown of Consumption and Investment/ 0
133Traditional Export Advantage Exhausting Gradually/ 0
2Two Theories of Economic Downturn and Doubts/ 0
21The Economy Should Not Enter Intermediate Speed of Growth/ 0
211The Logic and Policy View of “Medium Growth as Normal”/ 0
212Discussion over “Medium Growth as Normal”/ 0
22Economic Downturn Is Not Caused by External Factors/ 0
221The Logic and Policy View of “External Causes of Economic Downturn”/ 0
222Discussion over “External Causes of Economic Downturn”/ 0



Contents

PART TWOAcademic Debate and Historical Evolution
3Population and Development: Theoretical Review and Facts/ 0
31The Review and Discussion of the Relationship Theory of Population and Economy/ 0
311Moderate Population Theory and Its View of Birth Control/ 0
312“The Limits to Growth” and Pessimistic View of Population and Resources/ 0
313Basic Process of Family Planning under Market Mechanism/ 0
314Reviews of Literature on Population Mobility and Economic Growth/ 0
32Population Growth and Industrial Development/ 0
321Population Growth as Necessity of Industrialization/ 0
322Transition of Population Growth as Outcome of Industrialization/ 0
33Population Flow, Urbanization and Industrial Development/ 0
331Population Mobility Speeding up Urbanization Process/ 0
332Interactions between Urbanization and Industrialization/ 0
34The Dynamic and Coordinated Development of Population, Industrialization and Ecological Environment/ 0
341Harmonious Development between Population Growth and Resources/ 0
342Harmonious Development among Population Growth, Industrialization and Ecological Environment/ 0
343Dynamic Development among Population Growth, Industrialization and Ecological Environment/ 0
4Reproductive Right and Migration Right/ 0
41The Definition of Reproductive Right and Migration Right/ 0
411Dispute over ownership of Reproductive Right between Family and Government/ 0
412Different Arrangement of Migration Right between Family and Government/ 0
42The Economic Analysis of Birth Rate/
421Economic Explanation of Reproductive Right/
422Economic Discussion over Exercise of Reproductive Right/
43The Economic Analysis of Migration Right/
431Economic Explanation of Migration Right/
432Economic Discussion over Exercise of Migration Right/
5Experience in the World: The Distribution Based on Different Reproductive Right and Migration Right/
51The International Experience Based on Different Reproductive Right/
511Nonintervention Experience of the United States/
512Instructive Birth Control in Japan and Its Economic Up and Down/
513History of Instructive Birth Control in Korea/
514Instructive Birth Control in Taiwan/
515Miscarriage of Birth Control in India/
516International Experience of Different Arrangement of Reproductive Right/
52The International Experience Based on Different Migration Right/
521Free Migration of Population in the United States/
522Reproductive Right and Residential Registration in Japan/
523Free Migration of Population and Floating Population Management in France/
524Migration of Population and Low Mobility in Russia/
525Migration of Population and Formation of Slum Problem in India/
526International Experience of Different Arrangement of Migration of Population/

PART THREEThe Economic Consequence of China’s Population Planning System
6“Population Pit” and the Trap of Economic Growth/
61The Depth of “Population Pit” and The Time Length of High Economic Growth/
611“Population Pit” at Industrialization Stage and Economic Growth/
612“Population Pit” and Economic Slowdown in China/
62The Influence of the Change of Population Growth on Economic Growth Rate/
621Immediate Influence: Population Growth over Economic Growth/
622Long-term Influence: Theory of 20-year Delay Effect of Population Growth/
7The Economic Consequence of Unbalanced and Aging Population Structure/
71Population Structure, Huge Economic Change and the Fluctuation of Increase/
711Arithmetical Relationship between Population Structure and Consumption, Investment and Export Fluctuation/
712Population Change Leads to National Economic Downturn as Waves/
72The Downward and Aging Pressure on Economy in the Future/
721Long-term Economic Downward Pressure of National Economy/
722Numerous Difficulties from Aggravating Population Aging/

PART FOURThe Economic Consequence of China’s Population Flow Regulation System
8The Barriers and Problems of Population Entering Cities and Exiting Rural Areas/
81The Entry Barriers of theCitizenization of Migrant Population/
811Transition of Household Registration System and Population Movement in China/
812Inequality of Social Securities and Public Services/
82The Exit Barriers of Rural Property for Migrant Workers in Cities/
821Exit Barriers and Opportunity Cost for Farmers as Rational Economic Man/
822Dilemma of Renting to Exit and Comparison with Other Methods/
823Complexity of Rural Land System and Fraud of Acquisition as State-owned/
9The Twist of Urbanization Process and Consumption Downfall/
91“Out at Young Age and Return at Old Age” and Drifting in Cities/
911Frequent Migration of Population among Multiple Destinations between Rural and Urban Areas in Pendulum Mode/
912Population Migration between Rural and Urban Areas as “Out at Young Age and Return at Old Age”/
913Drifting Migrant Workers in Cities instead of Returning to Rural Areas/
914Urbanization with Citizenization in Most Countries/
92The Restriction on Urban Consumption and the Downfall of Rural Consumption/
921System with Intervention over Floating Population Which Restraining Consumption/
922Process of “Out at Young Age and Return at Old Age” and Consumption Downfall in Rural Areas/

Conclusion/
References/
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繁榮的輪回:人口變動與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的一個邏輯解釋 作者簡介

周天勇，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士，教授，中共中央黨校國際戰(zhàn)略研究所副所長，中共中央黨校校委研究室副主任，北京科技大學(xué)博士生導(dǎo)師。 社會兼職有：中國城市發(fā)展研究會副理事長兼城市研究所所長，國家行政學(xué)院、北京科技大學(xué)、東北財政大學(xué)、中國社會科學(xué)院研究生院等教授，國家發(fā)改委價格咨詢專家。研究領(lǐng)域為社會主義經(jīng)濟(jì)理論、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和增長、勞動經(jīng)濟(jì)、中小企業(yè)、金融風(fēng)險、城市化、國企改革、農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)等。在上海三聯(lián)出版社、經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué)出版社和中共中央黨校出版社出版有《勞動與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長》、《效率與供給經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)》、《金融風(fēng)險與資本社會化》、《中國經(jīng)濟(jì)命運與前景的深層次思考》、《新發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)》、《中國政治體制改革》、《國有企業(yè)改革攻堅》、《現(xiàn)代國有資產(chǎn)管理體系模式》、《走出決策的經(jīng)濟(jì)誤區(qū)》、《走出發(fā)展的體制障礙》、《中國：經(jīng)濟(jì)運行與結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)換》和研究生用《高級發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)》等專著和教材。近年來就國家整體負(fù)債、公平與效率、政府各部門收費、財政體制、官民供養(yǎng)比、水電開發(fā)、中國增長的危機(jī)等方面發(fā)表的文章，引起了各方面的高度關(guān)注。
王元地，男，四川大學(xué)教授，中共黨員。2012年以“人文社科青年百人計劃” 引進(jìn)人才進(jìn)入四川大學(xué)工作，聘為副研究員，2014年破格聘為博士生指導(dǎo)教師，并擔(dān)任四川大學(xué)創(chuàng)新與創(chuàng)業(yè)管理研究所常務(wù)副所長，入選四川省學(xué)術(shù)和技術(shù)帶頭人后備人選，2015年破格晉升教授。研究方向為：技術(shù)許可和交易、知識產(chǎn)權(quán)保護(hù)、企業(yè)創(chuàng)新國際化和后發(fā)國家技術(shù)追趕。作品有：《中國自主創(chuàng)新政策評價研究》（獨著）、《中國區(qū)域創(chuàng)新體系發(fā)展的理論與實踐》（合著）、《現(xiàn)代企業(yè)理論》（聯(lián)合主編）、《戰(zhàn)略管理理論與實踐》（主編）等。

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